Transcript:

Seth Adler:
Brian Vicente returns. Welcome to Cannabis Economy, I'm your host, Seth Adler. Download episodes on canneconomy.com or wherever you currently get your podcasts. First, a word from our supporter, and then Brian Vicente.

Join us for Sensible 2020, a virtual event, May 1 through May 3. Students for sensible drug policy, SSDP, is the largest global youth led network dedicated to ending the war on drugs. At its heart, SSDP is a grassroots organization led by the board of directors primarily elected by and from the student and youth members. Each year, SSTP brings the community together for Sensible. Sensible 2020, May 1 through May 3 is a virtual event focusing on criminal justice, mass incarceration, global drug policy, harm reduction, health, intersection social justice issues, lobbying and advocacy, psychedelics, skills building, and cannabis. I have the honor of hosting this year's gathering, so please join me by registering at conference.ssdp.org. That's conference.ssdp.org.

All right, so it is Brian Vicente. Brian, it's been too long. How are you?

Brian Vicente:
Doing great, thanks Seth.

Seth Adler:
For folks that where that name sounds familiar, let's just remind folks about your storied history as far as cannabis legalization.

Brian Vicente:
Sure. I'm an attorney. I've been doing cannabis law for over 15 years full-time, and I was the co-director, and also the co-author of Amendment 64, which is the legalization law that was passed in Colorado in 2012, and in many ways, kind of broke down the barrier for legalization. We were the first state to do so and, of course, we've seen a lot of positive progress since then.

Seth Adler:
Yeah, and that might be a good way to start, which is 2012 presidential election, 2016 president election, 2020 presidential election. Do you want to just kind of bridge that gap and share the differences along the way and maybe the tent pole moments in cannabis legalization in general?

Brian Vicente:
Sure. I think there is a reason that advocates like myself run measures in presidential years and, of course, this being 2020 and you can't turn on the news without hearing about the presidential race. It's because that's when the most Americans turn out to vote. Period. That's when people turn out to vote, if we're able to put a marijuana measure on the ballot, then we're just going to get the biggest cross section of Americans, your neighbors, turning out to vote. At the end of the day, most Americans support legalization, but most Americans don't always vote in the odd-year elections, but they usually vote in the presidential. So, particularly communities of color, younger voters, they get very excited about those presidential years.

Seth Adler:
But, this does point out that, we've been saying it all along whether you're a democrat or republican, cannabis gets more votes than you. This is an issue that folks have agreed on, that folks vote for, for quite some time now. If you don't have such a popular issue, maybe you put that on an odd-year ballot, right?

Brian Vicente:
Yeah. These are the tactics you kind of think through as the folks running these campaigns keep in mind. I think this year's ballot is going to be extremely exciting in terms of marijuana policy. We're seeing some big, big moves, it's going to be great.

Seth Adler:
Adult use, everyone knows by now, Colorado, Washington, 2012. In 2016, we hit all but one, and you can pin that down to one donor, can't you?

Brian Vicente:
Yeah. There are a couple big dogs that throw in. Peter Lewis passed away, he was the Progressive Auto Insurance guy, but my understanding is his family is still giving quite a bit. And then, there are sometimes folks on the other side of the equation, you have Sheldon Adelson, and some of these conservative casino guys, or drug manufacturers that come out against us. So, it's a money game, and we need to make sure the resources are on the good guys' side.

Seth Adler:
Arizona the only one that lost, and because of essentially, we chalk it up to Sheldon Adelson in 2016, everything else won. When you look to 2020 what do you see in the cards here? Let's get to some prognostications.

Brian Vicente:
Yes, I think this is going to be one of the biggest years in marijuana reform history. 2012 was really big because we sort of kicked things into gear, but 2020 I think might be the year people look back and say, wow, that's sort of the tipping point of when it all went the way of legalization. As such, there are some campaigns that I feel very strongly about that should win this year. I did want to encourage anyone watching to get involved, we can't just take things for granted and they're not going to pass without you donating and phone banking, letting people know on the ground, your friends in Arizona, that they should vote "yes" on this. It's really going to take a movement.

Along those lines, we can break down the ballot measures kind of into two buckets. You have your adult use or recreational measures, and we're going to see recreation on the ballot in Arizona, for sure. I feel good about that campaign, it's been professionally run, they're actually very well funded compared to some other campaigns, so I predict we'll wake up with a new president, or maybe the old president, who knows, and also marijuana legal in Arizona.

Seth Adler:
I think unpacking Arizona tells us a lot because on the one hand, you can tell us what didn't happen maybe in 2016, what did happen in 2016, and how that lines up to what must happen in 2020. So, yes, you say you're feeling pretty good. Okay fine, but what's got to happen?

Brian Vicente:
Yeah, yeah. And to your point, for folks listening, Arizona has tried to legalize marijuana in the past and failed, and in fact they tried to medicalize and failed the first time too, but they ultimately did pass a medical law. But, I think we're in a bit of a different climate this. Largely, the reason it lost last time, and it lost by a hair, I think it was a half a percent, so this is very winnable. We basically have a lot more funding this side, on the yes side. The prior campaign funding in the opposition campaign in 2016 largely came from pharmaceutical drug manufacturers that didn't want medical marijuana out there. I don't think we're going to see that same funding again, I think it's very unlikely.

Seth Adler:
Why do you say that? Let me...

Brian Vicente:
Well, I just think we haven't seen it so far, and I think the folks that... I think the people that donated to that campaign are facing criminal charges. It might be sort of similar to what we're seeing around Oxycontin where these folks are engaging in this campaign to addict people to their drugs and, in this case, they don't want anything competing with that including marijuana that folks might choose as a safe alternative. So, I don't think it will be as well funded.

I also think there's just a general trend in marijuana policy that has been trending towards legalization and it's really interesting to look back historically in the '60s, and what have you, support for legalization was single digits, and since then, really since California in 1996 passed medical marijuana, we're seeing significant support year over year growing for legalization with more states coming on board like Colorado and Michigan and these other states that have proven that regulation is better than prohibition, you really see more and more voters get on board. So, I think we're in a good place now.

Seth Adler:
All right, so we're in a good place in Arizona partly because of just the general zeitgeist, but also because we have played this game there before, lost by a hair, we know what's going on on the ground, boots on the ground for a number of years now, as you said. All right, so that's Arizona, feeling good, still got to do the work. What would be next on your list?

Brian Vicente:
The next in line I would say is Missouri. Again, what an interesting state to say that they're going to be legal in November, but I do believe it's going to be the case. Missouri, [inaudible 00:08:28], they passed a medical marijuana law 18 months ago, so this is not a state with a long-term history and track record of regulating marijuana, it's new. But, the campaign is being run by a New Approach. Those are the guys who have run a lot of different statewide campaigns across the country. They're very professional. They ran the medical campaign in Missouri, so they have history there. It's well-drafted and at this point pretty well funded. We had a fundraiser at my office in Denver about a month ago for it, so people are getting behind it and actually, the early polling is very strong. I think if we can get this thing on the ballot, which I think we will, then I think that wins as well.

Seth Adler:
Okay, so there's Missouri, and already we can see that this is a different year. If Missouri is the second state that we're mentioning out of the box here, and we're talking about adult use. What else is on this list as far as looking good?

Brian Vicente:
Yeah, my likely winners. I would add New Jersey to that. I know that's a little bit of your home turf out there, but they're putting a measure on the ballot to essentially legalize, but it's more of like a referendum that would basically just instruct the legislature to establish regulations around legalizing. But, the important thing is that voters are going to get to vote on this in November. The same day as the presidential voters will vote on this. I believe the polling is there. It's not going to require much of a campaign. I'm not saying there shouldn't be a campaign, there should be some, but it's not going to take a ton of persuasion to get voters in New Jersey on board, particularly because it's like a sentence that basically says, "Should New Jersey move towards establishing regulations for legalization?" and I think most people are going to say "yes." Sometimes folks get caught up in the details of that and might vote "no." Not this time around. So, I think New Jersey wins.

Seth Adler:
That's interesting you mentioned my neck of the woods. Of course, New York, I'm hailing from Yonkers as we speak, but New York and New Jersey both couldn't quite do it out of the legislature. We had a good win in Illinois out of the legislature, but that still doesn't really happen too much, which is why we're happy to look forward to the actual voters actually voting to tell the legislators what to do, which is elected government. That is what democracy is supposed to be, that's how it's built. What else is on our list here as far as adult use?

Brian Vicente:
Sure, in terms of adult use there are some other states looking at it. We have Arkansas looking at it, we have Montana, we have Oklahoma, North Dakota, and South Dakota. And, of those, I would give all of those a bit of a maybe. That doesn't mean I'm not pulling for them, I am, but there is only so much funding to go around, there's only so much campaign persuasion you can do. I think the original ones I listed are more of the sure shots, but I think with a decent campaign and enough support, those other states could move forward as well.

Seth Adler:
And, are we in a position now where a loss informs a win? We always have kind of said that a loss is almost as good as a win, as opposed to a loss being devastating? Is it that kind of conversation in those states, "Hey, look at how many people did vote for this," no matter how many people it was?

Brian Vicente:
Yeah, no, I think that's an important point. I do think there's a good chance that if we narrowly lose these, which any loss would just be narrow, I believe we're not going to get smoked, that it's still a positive step forward for the movement. My concern, and not to get too into the weeds on this, is qualifying for the ballot. It just costs money to get the signatures to put these things on the ballot, and I just listed eight or nine states, there's only so much money out there that people are dumping in the reform efforts. So, my concern more in a place like Montana or, I'm not even sure if I mentioned it, but Ohio has a legalization measure they could vote on, they're going to have to raise the money to get it on the ballot, and that's going to be the toughest thing. I think if those states I mentioned get on the ballot they most likely win.

Seth Adler:
Yeah. You did not mention Ohio and I wonder how could that be so different than Missouri?

Brian Vicente:
Ohio would be one of the biggest wins in the history of legalization for sure. It's the bellwether state. The problem is getting a measure on the ballot in Ohio, which involves paying signature gatherers, would cost as much as every other state I just mentioned combined. It's an extremely expensive state to put things on the ballot. The reason for that is because it's a presidential year you have all the TV bought up by essentially Bloomberg and Trump, and it's a battleground state, unlike a Montana, or something, it's much more of a battleground state. So, it's going to be very expensive to get on the ballot and really persuade people. It's also a very populous state, so getting on the ballot you got to gather, I think it's like, 800,000 signatures, which costs a ton of money.

Seth Adler:
Okay. That is how presidential politics does affect perhaps negatively, not very often, but every once in a while. All right, so what about medical, you remember medical marijuana, right?

Brian Vicente:
Yeah, it's still important. Not always the topic of every conversation on marijuana these days, but yeah. The big, big one, and this is going to be a shocker, I think, to a lot of folks, is Mississippi. I firmly believe Mississippi is going to legalize medical marijuana this November. The campaign is being run by a state legislator who is self-funding and has written giant checks. He's brought in a lot of professional campaign staff, and I think this is a giant deal because it will be a meaningful medical marijuana law. This is not like a low THC law limited to the kids, or something, this is full blown Colorado-style medical, or whatever you have, in the deep, deep South. The polling is there. I think this is going to surprise a lot of folks, but I think it's going to pass.

Seth Adler:
That is fascinating. Self-funded, okay, great, that's one thing, and it's a person that's in government, so that's fantastic too. Those things help. What else do you think is helping the polling, specifically deep South, in Mississippi?

Brian Vicente:
I think just we talked about how support for legalization has grown year over year. Support for medical, it is hard to find a topic the America people agree on more than that patient should have access to medical marijuana if their doctor says it's right for them. I mean, we're talking in the 90s. Your grandma, everybody supports this. It's really a matter of getting it in front of voters. There're going to be some scare tactics, because there always are, and in the South even more scary that we'd seen other places, but really, I think the time has come for medical marijuana, and I think this is a watershed moment. If Mississippi can do it, then there's no reason that the surrounding states in the South, or even some over states that don't have meaningful medical, in Iowa or Louisiana, there's no reason they can't have a law that's better than Mississippi. I don't mean to say that to be mean to Mississippi, but Mississippi is not usually the cultural vanguard for these things, but here they have an opportunity to lead.

Seth Adler:
All right, yeah. To lead.

Brian Vicente:
To lead.

Seth Adler:
That's a different thing. I think Texas put that on the ballot a bunch of years ago.

Brian Vicente:
[inaudible 00:16:06]

Seth Adler:
Yeah. There's the international picture that I want to get to, and I guess let's just go ahead and do that. Just, broad general terms, you went down to Uruguay, and all of that, way back in the day. The 2020 version of what international legal cannabis looks like, what would you say, just as a quick kind of tip of the cap?

Brian Vicente:
Yeah, I think there's a robust discussion going on around marijuana around the globe, and we've never really seen this before, unless the discussion was, "How long should we put people in jail for?" But now, I think the most exciting development this year will be Mexico. Obviously, our neighbor to the south, long a bastion of drug war and cartels, etc., has lead to tons of collateral damage of people in that country, and they clearly need to move away from prohibition. It's like alcohol prohibition and people gunned down in the U.S. The same thing happened there is going on with marijuana prohibition. They're making great strides towards that, so I really think when Mexico legalizes this year, this is another prediction I have, that other states in Central America and around the globe, to some extent, will take that cue as well.

Seth Adler:
All right. That puts us into November, and all of these prognostications adding up to the next prognostication that I would love for you to make which is now, about a year and a little bit ago, maybe even about a year-and-a-half, everybody in the industry was sure that the STATES Act was going to pass. Those waters got muddied by the MORE Act, and these are my words, not yours, but I don't see the cosponsors on the STATES Act, especially in the Senate that would be needed for that to have a meaningful vote, and because the MORE Act is in the House, I don't see the cosponsors on the House version of that bill.

We did pass the SAFE Banking Act out of the House. It is there in the Senate, and even if that were to pass in the Senate this year even, what do you think these votes do for legal cannabis and federal legislation in 2021? That's my question to you.

Brian Vicente:
Yeah, great question. I think that's not always at the top of our minds. When we talk about legalizing marijuana in Arizona what that really means is we will have a number of congressional members and senators going back to D.C. and they're going to vote favorably on legalization. We've seen that not all the time, but we've seen that as a rule of thumb, and on marijuana reform more broadly. So, we have five, six states really move forward with meaningful legalization or medicalization and they will be sending new members of congress, or perhaps, the old members of congress back to really move on these laws.

I do think this time next year we're going to have a very different complexion in Congress. Perhaps the democrats win back the Senate, I'm not sure, but it is safe to say that there will be more congressional members that support legalization, so I think getting these bills done will be easier post-November.

Seth Adler:
Now the fun part of our conversation, because I absolutely, of course, trust your history as far as prognostications in legalizing cannabis. I feel like the fact that you think that the democrats might win back the Senate, that is a tall order, my friend.

Brian Vicente:
I know. Yeah, you know, what can I say? I'm a bit of a dreamer, but if you think about where those Senate seats lay, one of them is in Arizona. One of those very tightly contested battleground seats is in Arizona. Another one is in Maine. We're not voting on legalization there, but Susan Collins seems to be on her way out. Another one is in Colorado where marijuana is fully embraced, and both the main candidates, Senator Cory Gardner, and former governor, John Hickenlooper, are fighting to get the support of the marijuana industry in this state. So, I don't think it's impossible. I guess I would just say even if we don't win back the Senate there will be more members of Congress, and again, just more senators, even with the Republicans, from states that have just voted to legalize or medicalize, and I don't think they're going to go to D.C. and try to criminalize their state citizens and business backers.

Seth Adler:
The message has always been, "Let's move the needle. Let's move the needle," and we are moving that needle, and it's that way, it's not the other way. We are not looking in our rear view, or maybe we are looking in our rear view mirror, that's the old days. It is not going to be anything different than that, it's just a matter of time, it feels like at this point.

A matter of time has come upon us in the cannabis industry. Different question for you, we've been kind of on the way up the whole time, and we've got a little bit of a divot here, let's hope it's a divot. What are your thoughts on the general cannabis economy? I know that this is not your area, but you've been an important person in presenting the cannabis economy to the world. What are your thoughts on the state of the cannabis economy as we speak?

Brian Vicente:
Sure, sure, and I should say in my law firm there's a hundred of us and all we do is work with cannabis businesses and government, so the rise and fall of the cannabis economy is something we follow very closely here or else we don't have jobs. I do think from a long-term perspective we're only at the beginning of what's going to be a very robust part of our economy. It's pretty simple to me in a sense in that you just have a lot of people that consume marijuana across our country and across the globe. Many of those individuals live in states where it's not even regulated yet, so there aren't business opportunities, there isn't tax revenue coming in. I think long-term there will absolutely be a robust cannabis and hemp economy across the country and across the globe.

We've definitely been hammered in the last year, or so. We've seen what happens with public markets and Canada coming on board, and some of these I think are just, it's lessons learned and the people put too much emphasis on the Canadian stocks and their acquisition mode as opposed to them producing revenue. Could we have seen that coming when they didn't produce revenue for 10 quarters that perhaps their stock price would drop? We probably could have seen that coming, but we are where we are, and I think there are going to be some upsets this year. There will be some big companies that probably go under, but there will be underdogs that rise to the top as well.

Seth Adler:
There you go. You mentioned hemp. When do we go from talking about just one cannabinoid to actually talking about fiber and what the entire plant can do? What are your thoughts on that?

Brian Vicente:
Well, we've gotten a lot closer. For years, the only discussion about cannabis was THC, and in the last two years, or three, the discussion around CBD, I mean my mom now knows those letters. People that don't consume cannabis get it, because it's everywhere. Now we're talking about THC-A and we're talking about CBN and we're talking about all these other cannabinoids of which marijuana has 100, right? So, I think we're only tapping into that potential, but when you have one in seven Americans using CBD, you're going to have research develop, you're going to have further emphasis on figuring out how to untap this plants medical values.

In terms of the industrial side, there are a lot of large players that are really starting to circle about how can they actually contribute to making this planet a better place, and hemp is often on the table. Can we replace plastics with hemp? Can we replace fuel, can we replace concrete, paper? And so you have bigger and bigger players talking about this. Of course, you have the major movement at the federal level with the Farm Act and now many different states including southern places like Kentucky moving forward with Hemp programs. So, it's going to be a bit of a rocky economy as we figure out can everyone grow hemp or do we need to actually limit it, or what's the best way to package these things and produce them? A lot of how the economy is driven around this is going to be driven by the simple fact that we don't have enough production facilities around hemp right now. We have a lot of products, but not a lot of production facilities, and when does that catch up, and when are you and I drinking from hemp cups? It's all going to get there eventually, but it's going to be a journey, and that's going to be an exciting moment.

Seth Adler:
That's my dream, is a decorticator on every corner.

Brian Vicente:
That's...

Seth Adler:
That's what I think we need. All right, well listen, Brian, you're busy enough, so I'll let you get back it. We've asked you the three final questions for returning guests, there's no need to ask you three final questions, but there's a certain need to ask you the final question, which we always ask, which is on the soundtrack of your life, one track, one song that's got to be on there, what would it be today?

Brian Vicente:
I'm going to have to go with Fight the Power by Public Enemy.

Seth Adler:
I feel like you've said that one before.

Brian Vicente:
I'm going to stand by that. It's a timeless classic.

Seth Adler:
Indeed, and so are you Brian Vicente. Thank you so much. Can't wait to check in with you down the line.

Brian Vicente:
Great to talk to you Seth. Take care buddy.

Seth Adler:
And there you have Brian Vicente. We very much appreciate his time. We very much appreciate your time. Stay tuned.

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